KFF Publishes New Chart Collection on Health Spending Growth

KFF, the nonprofit health policy research organization formerly known as the Kaiser Family Foundation, published a chart collection on October 22, 2026, titled "How Much is Health Spending Expected to Grow?" The collection examines projected growth in total national health spending, prescription drug spending, and out-of-pocket costs that patients pay directly, according to KFF's published description.

KFF did not release a single headline growth figure in the summary accompanying this collection. Instead, the chart set is designed as a reference tool that tracks multiple spending categories over time, drawing on the kind of data the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Office of the Actuary regularly produces through its National Health Expenditure Accounts. Readers who want the specific percentages and dollar projections behind each chart should consult the collection directly at the link above, since those figures were not included in the publicly syndicated summary this analysis is based on.

Why Spending Growth Numbers Matter Beyond the Chart

Health spending growth is not an abstract statistic for Medicare enrollees. It feeds directly into the costs seniors see on their own bills and premium notices. When national health spending rises faster than wages or general inflation, as it has in most years tracked by federal actuaries, that pressure eventually shows up in three places that matter to retirees: Medicare Part B premiums, which are set annually based partly on projected program costs; Part D prescription drug plan premiums and formularies; and the out-of-pocket maximums built into Medicare Advantage and Medigap policies.

Prescription drug spending is one of the three categories KFF's collection specifically calls out, alongside total health spending and out-of-pocket spending. This category has drawn particular attention from policymakers and insurers in recent years because new specialty drugs, including treatments for conditions common among older adults, tend to carry high list prices. How fast that category grows affects which drugs insurers choose to cover, how they structure tiered formularies, and how much plans ask members to pay in coinsurance versus flat copays.

What This Means for Medicare Enrollees Right Now

Medicare's annual Open Enrollment Period runs from October 15 through December 7, 2026, which means this KFF release lands squarely in the window when current enrollees can change plans for the 2027 coverage year. Rising health spending trends are part of why plan costs and benefit structures shift from one year to the next, even for people who feel their own health needs haven't changed.

For readers evaluating their options this season, the practical question is not what national spending will do in aggregate, but what it means for their specific plan's premium, deductible, and drug formulary next year. Below are concrete steps worth taking before December 7.

Key Takeaway

Medicare's 2026 Open Enrollment Period ends December 7. If your plan's premium, deductible, or drug coverage has shifted, now is the time to compare alternatives, not after the window closes.

Practical Steps Before Open Enrollment Closes

Re-check your Part D formulary. Drug plan formularies change every year. If you take a specialty medication, confirm it is still covered at the same tier for 2027 before you commit to a plan.
Compare out-of-pocket maximums across plans. Rising spending trends often translate into higher annual out-of-pocket caps on Medicare Advantage plans. A lower premium can still mean higher total costs if you need significant care during the year.
Review your Annual Notice of Change (ANOC). Every current Medicare Advantage or Part D enrollee should have received this document in September 2026. It spells out exactly how your specific plan's costs and coverage are changing for 2027, which is more directly useful than any national spending projection.
Talk to a licensed insurance agent or use Medicare's Plan Finder. Because spending and pricing data shift by region, carrier, and plan type, a side-by-side comparison for your ZIP code will tell you more than broad national trends can.

What Remains Unclear

This KFF chart collection was published without specific growth percentages or dollar figures in its public summary, so it is not yet clear from the available description exactly how much faster spending is projected to grow compared to prior KFF or CMS releases, or which specific years the projections cover. Readers who want those exact figures, along with the methodology behind them, should review the full chart collection at KFF's website. What is clear is that KFF continues to treat prescription drug costs and out-of-pocket spending as distinct categories worth tracking separately from total health spending, a framing that reflects how differently those costs land on individual households compared to the system as a whole.

As a general matter, Senior Plan Path recommends treating any national spending projection as a signal to double-check your own plan's specifics rather than a reason to panic. The national trend line and your personal renewal notice are two different documents, and only one of them determines what you'll actually pay next year.